Why does one person staying home tip a party from packed to empty?

A party is buzzing. Then a single friend decides not to come — just one. Somehow the whole room drains out and the party dies. How can one person empty a packed room? Let's build a crowd and find out.

1What's going on in everyone's head

Two simple things make a crowd

You only need two ideas. Watch each one:

Everyone has a secret number

"I'll only come if at least THIS many others are coming." Some friends are easygoing (a low number — they'll come to a quiet party). Some are shy (a high number — they only show up once it's already busy).

Everyone watches everyone

Nobody decides alone. If a few people leave, the room gets emptier — which can push the next person past their own number. So each choice quietly pushes on the next choice.

2Two kinds of crowd

The plodders vs the copycats

A crowd can be put together two opposite ways:

Go no matter what

The plodders

Everyone's number is zero. They come whether it's packed or empty. Nobody is watching anybody.

Only if others go

The copycats

Everyone has a real number, so each person is checking the headcount before they decide.

3Your turn — set the mood

Make the copycat crowd pickier and watch the room

Here's a copycat crowd. Drag the slider to make everyone pickier — needing more friends before they'll come. The room settles to a steady headcount. Hunt for the spot where it suddenly empties out.

At the party: 0 of 30 packed
EASYGOINGVERY PICKY

4Now balance it on the edge

The party is sitting right at the tipping point 🪙

No more slider — the copycat crowd is parked exactly at its edge: packed, but only just. The big test: take away one person. Guess what happens first, then do it.

Balanced on:the tipping point

Guess before you remove anyone

Everyone only comes if enough others are coming, and the party is balanced right at the edge. One person decides to stay home. What happens to the party?